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풍력예보를 위한 단순 앙상블예측시스템 - 태풍 볼라벤 사례를 통한 평가 -
논문 개요
| 기관명 | NDSL |
|---|---|
| 저널명 | 한국태양에너지학회 논문집 = Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society |
| ISSN | 1598-6411, |
| ISBN |
논문저자 및 소속기관 정보
| 저자(한글) | 김진영,김현구,강용혁,윤창열,김지영,이준신 |
|---|---|
| 저자(영문) | |
| 소속기관 | |
| 소속기관(영문) | |
| 출판인 | |
| 간행물 번호 | |
| 발행연도 | 2016-01-01 |
| 초록 | A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode. |
| 원문URL | http://click.ndsl.kr/servlet/OpenAPIDetailView?keyValue=03553784&target=NART&cn=JAKO201613752757228 |
| 첨부파일 |
추가정보
| 과학기술표준분류 | |
|---|---|
| ICT 기술분류 | |
| DDC 분류 | |
| 주제어 (키워드) | 풍력예보,앙상블예측시스템,수치기상예측,칼만필터,태풍 볼라벤,해모수 1호,Wind power forecasting,EPS(Ensemble Prediction System),NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction),KF(Kalman Filter),Typhoon Bolaven,HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unit-1) |