| 초록 |
Adopting the method of whole time-pace scan on the 3D axial of time, space and strength, the non-steady-state precursory information of moderate seismic activity is identified. The result shows that the characteristic of moderate seismic activity changing from steady-state to non-steady-state is exist in the course of an earthquake pregnant. The non-steady-state seismicity pattern is different from traditional seismic gap and band, its spatial scope is bigger and it often appears about one year before the earthquake. It is called sign earthquake when the earthquake occurs not at open or unload end point ( intersection point) of non-steady-state pattern. Using the sign earthquake to predict the M_s ≥15.0 shock inner 100 km range in future 2 years, its prediction efficiency is R =0. 573. |
