| 초록 |
With prediction methods which have clear physical- meaning, are less related each other and with catalogue, the possibility location and condition of moderate-strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region are discussed. The result shows that the low frequency of M3 earthquake lasting longer than 3 months, M5 earthquake quietness lasting 6 months reflect mid-short term character of occurring M ≥ 6 earth- quakes, and corresponding rate is greater than 83%. Taking M4 earthquakes occurring within 3 months after M6 earthquake during the earthquake active phase as the response earthquake, the rate of occuring a mid-strong earthquake is 62% in the range of 250 km within one year, and 79% within 2 years. Taking low value - returning of b value in response region as possible occurring condition of prepared focal region, occurring rate is 7507o within one year, and 9207o within 2 years. |
